In my book Missão da Igreja: dimensões e efeitos, page 110, I had estimated that evangelical church reach 25% of adherents in Brazil. The 2010 population census results showed a change from 15.4% in 2000 to 22.2% in 2010. Among those who declared to be Protestant, 60.0% came from a Pentecostal branch including neo-pentecostal churches, 18.5% were traditional Protestants such as baptists, presbyterians, methodists and congregationals and 21.8% were independent Protestants named non-classified.
The Protestant religious segment recorded the biggest increases between the two last census editions. In 2000, Protestants made up 15.4% of the population. In 2010, they already made up 22.2%, what represented increase by about 16 million persons (from 26.2 million to 42.3 million). This percentage was 9.0%, in 1991, and 6.6%, in 1980.
Catholics fell from 73.6% to 64.6% in 2010. The biggest decrease occurred in the North where located Amazonia basin, from 71.3% to 60.6%, whereas Protestants, in this same Region, recorded increase from 19.8% to 28.5%. Among the states, the smallest percentage of Catholics was found in Rio de Janeiro, 45.8% in 2010. The biggest number of them was in Piauí, 85.1%. Considering Protestants, the biggest number lived in Rondônia (33.8%), and the smallest, in Piauí (9.7%).
The proportion of Catholics was also bigger among persons aged 40 years and over, and reached 75.2% in the group aged 80 and over. The same occurred among Spiritists, with most members aged between 50 and 59 (3.1%). Among Protestants, the biggest percentages were seen among children (25.8% in the group aged 5 -9) and teenagers (25.4% in the group aged 10-14).
In some regions of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, in Southeast region was found more evangelicals that catholic people with less than 30%.
The trend is until 2030, catholics will be less half of population and, in 2040, evangelical and catholics will tie up. The journalist Helio Schwatsman wrote that “Brazil run to perform a unusual movement among Nations History, to change its main religion without war and religious persecution.“